“No worries,” agencies say, as H5N1 avian flu hits more farm workers

The spread from poultry & cattle to humans is accelerating toward exponential increase.  It just hasn’t happened yet.

            SACRAMENTO,  California––The clock is ticking toward the inevitable evolution of an H5N1 avian flu variant that easily spreads among humans,  but no one knows whether it is ticking in seconds,  minutes,  hours,  weeks,  months,  or years.

“The current risk to the public remains low,”  the California Department for Public Health  announced on October 23,  2024,  after confirming the 15th confirmed H5N1 case of the year among California dairy farm workers.

“No person-to-person spread of bird flu has been detected in California,”  the California Department for Public Health said.

Hitting dairies at rate of two a day

But H5N1 has now been found on 133 California dairy farms,  up from 105 in two weeks or less.

“People rarely get bird flu,”  the California Department for Public Health reassured,  “but those who interact with infected dairy cows, poultry,  or wildlife have a greater risk of infection.”

That happens to be potentially almost a million of the 39 million California residents.  At an average rate of flu transmission of two people infected by each new victim,  an easily transmitted H5N1 variant could infect at least 10% of the California human population within less than a month.

To be on the safe side,  “California has distributed protective gear to dairy farms and workers,”  the California Department for Public Health said.

5,000 flu vaccines for 450,000 farm workers

Also,  “California has received 5,000 additional seasonal flu vaccines for people who work with dairy cows in the Central Valley.  The seasonal flu vaccine protects against serious illness from seasonal flu and may reduce the chance of human and bird flu viruses mixing and becoming more dangerous,  the California Department of Public Health announcement concluded,  adding that  “Pasteurized milk and dairy products are safe to consume,”  because “Pasteurization inactivates the bird flu virus.”

The October 23,  2024 California Department for Public Health statement largely reiterated the central point of an October 18,  2024 statement from the same agency:

“Given the amount of exposure individuals with bird flu infections have with infected cows, evidence continues to suggest only animal-to-human spread of the virus in California.  Additionally, based on Center for Disease Control & Prevention genomic sequencing of three California bird flu cases,  there is no evidence to suggest an increased ability for the virus to infect or spread between people and no known reduced susceptibility to antiviral medications.

“All individuals have experienced mild symptoms,  including eye redness or discharge (conjunctivitis),  and have been treated according to CDC guidance.  None of the individuals have been hospitalized,”  the Center for Disease Control & Prevention said.

Mild symptoms may not be good news

But that supposed reassurance cuts both ways.  The less severe the H5N1 symptoms in most infected individuals,  the greater the risk that an H5N1 strain is evolving that can spread from person to person without killing the hosts.

Once such a strain emerges,  it can rapidly become widely distributed,  and can begin killing victims with weak immune systems,  much as do more familiar influenza strains,  and as did COVID 19,  which killed more than 1.2 million Americans before evolving into weaker varieties that are much less lethal to most victims.

Meanwhile in Michigan,  cows have developed H5N1 on 30 dairy farms.

How was Missouri housemate of H5N1 victim infected?

From Missouri,  New York Times reporters Apoorva Mandavilli and Emily Anthes recounted on October 24,  2024 that,  “A Missouri resident who shared a home with a patient hospitalized with bird flu in August 2024 was also infected with the virus,  federal officials reported.

“Symptomatic health care workers who cared for the hospitalized patient were not infected, testing showed.  The news eased worries among researchers,”  Mandavilli and Anthes wrote,  “that the virus,  H5N1,  had gained the ability to spread more efficiently among people,”  but neither did the findings suggest there is nothing to worry about.

Instead,  that the health care workers were not infected only means that the hour is not as late as it could be.

The “Missouri resident who shared a home with a patient hospitalized with bird flu” probably was infected by the original patient,  having had much more contact with that patient than the health workers,  both directly and indirectly.

Additional cases may be found,  says CDC top doc

“There are 31 confirmed cases” of H5N1 among U.S. human residents,  but “Additional cases may be found as investigations continue,”  cautioned Nirav Shah,  MD.,  principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention.

Shah pointed out,  Mandavilli and Anthes said,  that “The poultry workers in Washington State were infected with a version of the virus that is distinct from the one circulating in dairy cattle.”

But all that really means is that H5N1 is mutating into ever more forms,  more and more of which can potentially infect humans.

Sooner or later,  one of those mutations is likely to touch off the long-feared H5N1 global pandemic.

2.7 million birds killed due to H5N1 in Washington & Utah

The Washington State Department of Health warned on October 20,  2024 that “Four agricultural workers tested presumptively positive for avian influenza after working with infected poultry at a commercial egg farm in Franklin County.”

As in California,  “The individuals experienced mild symptoms and have been provided with antiviral medication,”  the Washington Department of Health said.  “Testing of additional individuals on the farm is currently pending,  and the number of cases under investigation may change.

“These are the first presumed human cases of H5 virus under investigation in Washington state,”  the Washington Department of Health continued.  The cases took place at a farm that
was the site of an avian influenza outbreak in chickens.”

Eight hundred thirty-nine thousand birds were killed to keep H5N1 from spreading in Franklin County,  Washington––and 1.85 million birds at a table egg farm in Cache County, Utah.

“Fall is a risky time of year for H5N1”

“Fall is a risky time of year for H5N1 in Washington because it is relatively common among migratory wild birds,”  advised the Washington State Standard.

“Wild birds who travel north from the lower 48 states in summer mingle with other
birds from Asia and Europe––a ripe opportunity for bird flu to spread and evolve,  the Washington State Standard explained.

“We all kind of hold our breath and wait for them to come back down and see what kind of reassortment they’ve brought with them,”  Washington state veterinarian Amber Itle advised.

“This was not unexpected that we would see some additional detections of the avian influenza virus again this fall,”  Itle said.  “But we were sure hoping that it would be a less pathogenic strain.”

52% human case fatality rate

Thus far,  47 Washington poultry flocks have contracted H5N1 since 2022.

“Two of them were commercial,  including the Franklin County outbreak,”  the Washington State Standard said,  “and the rest were domestic,”  an ambiguous term which could describe either hobby flocks or gamefowl.

“The other commercial flock was about one million birds,”  the Washington State Standard stipulated.

How serious could an H5N1 outbreak get?

The World Health Organization has over the past decade logged 889 H5N1 cases in humans,  causiing 463 deaths in 23 nations,  for a case fatality rate of 52%.

H5N5 is coming on too

While H5N1 spreads to humans primarily through contact with domestic flocks,  domestic flocks are infected primarily by wild birds.

Also deadly to domestic flocks is a second highly pathogenic strain,  H5N5,  also transmitted by wild birds,  but not yet known to cross into mammals.

Where flocks raised in intensive confinement have little or no direct contact with wild birds,  weekend cockfighters employed in poultry barns are believed to be the chief vector of H5N1 and perhaps also H5N5 transmission,  through flecks of manure from infected birds left on boots,  jackets,  and other clothing.

Japan & U.K. are both worried

The Japanese environment ministry “raised the nationwide bird flu alert to the highest level after detecting highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild birds in two towns in Hokkaido Prefecture of northern Japan,”  Xinhua News reported on October 18,  2024,  without specifying whether H5N1 or H5N5 was involved.

On September 30,  2024,  Xinhua News said,  “the virus was found in the carcass of a falcon in Otobe Town,  and on October 8,  2024,  the virus was detected in droppings from wild ducks in Betsukai Town.”

On the far side of the globe,  on October 18,  2024,  the British Department of Environment,  Food,  & Rural Affairs reportedly warned that the the avian influenza risk level for wild birds had increased from low to medium,  due to detection of H5N5.

Eagles at risk

Either H5N1,  H5N5,  or both may be jeopardizing American bald eagle recovery,  Washington Post writer Mark Johnson warned on October 6,  2022.

“In northern Michigan,”  Johnson opened, “where William Bowerman,  a University of Maryland professor,  has spent 40 years continuing a long-running bald-eagle census,”  the occupied eagle nest count rose from from 52 in 1961 to “about 1,000 by the end of 2021.  Late that year,  highly pathogenic avian influenza reached North America.

“In 2022, the number of occupied nests plunged 50%.  Tests on dead bald eagles performed by the Michigan Department of Natural Resources revealed that 38% of those that could be diagnosed had died of avian influenza.

“Nationwide,”  Johnson said,  “avian influenza has killed at least 606 bald eagles in 45 states, according to findings from the USDA Animal & Plant Health Inspection Service.”

Johnson also mentioned Georgia findings that successful eagle nestings had dropped in 2022 by 43% and 63% in the two hardest-hit counties,  reported in January 2023 in the journal Nature Scientific Reports.

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